It seems like we just finished the Triple Crown and gulped down the Breeders’ Cup, and here we are again.  Between now and the post draw on Wednesday, and even until the gate opens on Saturday, I have a feeling the Derby deck will shuffle and reshuffle.
            As usual, several of my early choices are not running.  I liked what I saw of War Pass in the BC Juvy last year, but there was just no way the Juvy Curse would break two years in a row.  The poor guy’s out with an injury; hopefully he’ll come back by the summer.  Georgie Boy, my number one choice this year, is also out of the Derby – I’d be thrilled to see him run in the Belmont, but I have a feeling we won’t see him until summer, either.  I liked what I saw of Elysium Fields initially, but he’s faded from the picture.
            Of my original picks, only Pyro’s still going at it.  He’s lost support over the past weeks, but I still like him. I like his determination and his personality, and I think he’s got more poise than a lot of the others.  I was on the fence about Big Brown until his last race.  I tossed a few bucks at him that day because he looked good in the paddock. Then I fretted because he lathered so much on the way to the gate, and I worried he wore himself out.  But he ran well and won by, if memory serves correctly, 4 ½ lengths.  He’s worth a look.  My concern with him in the Derby is that he’ll be squished in a large field, and I’m not sure he has the experience yet to keep a cool head AND run like heck.
            I’m also going with Gayego, ridden by Mike Smith, who won a few years back on Giacomo.  I like the way they’ve partnered together thus far, and I think it’s worth a few bucks. Gayego is also a horse who does well no matter what the weather, so keep him in mind if it rains. A few people whose opinions I trust are Colonel John fans – I like the look of Cowboy Cal, and I also like his sire, Giant’s Causeway.  I’ll make a final choice on Cowboy Cal in the post parade.  If Tale of Ekati gets in, I want to take another look – again, there’s just something about the horse I like.  Oh, yeah, and both Storm Cat and Sunday Silence are in the pedigree.  If it rains, Visonnaire will be tossed into the mix (and don’t forget Gayego if it rains).  Behindatthebar deserves another look after his nice win in the Coolmore, but he’s on the bubble, as is Denis of Cork (who wasn’t in any of my original picks anyway).  Smooth Air’s been running a fever and missed a few days of training, so he might be out. Even if he’s in, unless he blows me away in the paddock, he’s not my choice.
            There’s also a chance of one or two fillies in the race.  It looks more likely that Proud Spell will run in the Oaks than the Derby – wherever she runs, she’ll get some money from me.  Eight Belles will enter the Derby  (as of this writing, it could change) – I’m very interested to see how she does.  I suspect she’ll finish mid-pack, but I’m going to send a few dollars her way just in case.
            As far as betting, I’ll bet Gayego and Pyro across the board, and see where the others fall in.  Maybe Big Brown across the board as a safety bet.  Probably a show bet on Eight Belles, and a place bet or two the others depending on how they look in the paddock and what the weather holds.  Should two horses totally thrill me in the post parade, I’ll do a couple of boxed exactas.  I think this field’s too inconsistent for exotic bets.
            As usual, I’ll handicap the entire race day card on a special edition of Racing Ink on Ink in My Coffee (http://devonellington.wordpress.com) either on Friday or first thing Saturday.  And my Derby wrap-up will be right here the week after the Derby.  Enjoy!